The logic of this proliferation optimist position flows easily from expectedutility assumptions of rational deterrence theory. Doing so would shed light on the evolution of the causes of nuclear proliferation since 1945. Nuclear deterrence, however, is based on an unexamined notion. May 10, 2008 paradoxically, nuclear weapons have created a role in international relations which is impossible to remove. The myth of nuclear deterrence w ard w ilson nuclear deterrence is sometimes treated as a known quantity a definite thing that keeps us safe and ensures our security. To what extent do the spread of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them threaten u. Different strategies of proliferation offer different opportunities and vulnerabilities for nuclear proliferation and. Looking at current theories of nuclear proliferation. After wading through the history, theory, dangers, challenges and failures of proliferation policy, most readers could be excused for feeling a bit depressed. In order to acquire nuclear weapons, we argue, a state must possess both the willingness and the opportunity to. What, then, is the current global order as it pertains to nuclear proliferation. I have written this thesis to bridge the gap between scholars of nuclear proliferation and policymakers who must make decisions about conventional force structure and deployment. Strategies of nuclear proliferation mit political science. These questions are important because how states try to acquire nuclear weaponstheir strategies of nuclear proliferation.
In an 85 to 12 vote, the senate approved, specifically for india, an exception to existing us nuclear. States pur sue nuclear weapons in different ways, and those differences matter. Organization theory, deterrence theory, and the spread of nuclear weapons. The causes of nuclear weapons proliferation annual. If detonated, these weapons would cause the equivalent of about 150,00 hiroshima bombs. Finally, theories of nuclear proliferationand other rare phenomenatypically offer many observable implications for scholars to test. In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content the perils o f proliferation organization theory, deterrence theory, and the spread of nuclear weapons scott d. Nuclear proliferation and the npt by ilkka pastinen upon its conclusion in 1968, the treaty on the nonproliteration of nuclear weapons npt was acclaimed as the most important international agreement in the field of disarmament since the nuclear age began and a major success for the cause of peace. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the nonproliferation treaty or npt. Nov 09, 2017 there are two opposing theories regarding the question of proliferation and non proliferation of nuclear weapons. Dec 02, 20 what, then, is the current global order as it pertains to nuclear proliferation. The intersubjective construction of contemporary threats by various actors concerns both vertical proliferation the maintenance and expansion of nuclear arsenals by the original five npt states n5 and, more frequently, that of horizontal proliferation the spread of nuclear weapons beyond. The history of the future of nuclear weapons by moeed yusuf fellow, frederick s. Summary of explanatory perspectives on the iraq invasion theory causalexplanatory focus realism unipolarity, maintain hegemony and avoid post911 decline by demonstrating u.
Arms control is typically exercised through the use of diplomacy which seeks to impose such limitations upon consenting participants through international treaties and agreements, although it may also. For this purpose the many theories developed in the past decades will be grouped into four. This is partly because realist theory provides a convincing justification for the acquisition of. Strategies of nuclear proliferation strategies of nuclear. Why do they select particular strategies to develop them, and how do these choices affect the international communitys ability to prevent nuclear proliferation. The purpose of this work is to explore the relation between 1 the gradual increase of international cooperation in nuclear arms control and nuclear deterrence. Hymans traditionally, american thinking on proliferation whether by scholars or practitioners has. Proliferation optimism and theories of nuclear operations. A dynamic theory of nuclear proliferation and preventive. Proponents of missile defenses, both inside and outside the bush administration, argue that, absent nmd, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the greater u.
It sheds light on the strength of liberal philosophy in convincing states to forgo nuclear weapons. We develop a formal model of bargaining between two states where one can invest in a program to develop nuclear weapons and the other imperfectly observes its efforts and progress over time. In the absence of a nonproliferation deal, the observing state watches the formers program, waiting until proliferation seems imminent to attack. After the advent of the nuclear age, nuclear weapons have been a central topic for debate within academia, foreignpolicy communities and think tanks. Sagan a n apparent contradiction lies at the center of our understandings about nuclear weapons and deterrence. Perspectives nuclear proliferation nuclear age peace. Coe skip to main content accessibility help we use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. This will not be achieved by developing a new theory, but by increasing the insights in the large amount of existing theories on nuclear proliferation motivations. Pdf the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation researchgate. The sixth section outlines alternative theories about the potential impact of the nuclear non proliferation treaty npt on nuclear weapons programs decisions. Johnson school of public affairs, university of texas, austin alex h. We evaluate a variety of explanations in two stages of nuclear proliferation, the presence of nuclear weapons production programs and the actual possession of nuclear weapons. The nuclear nonproliferation treaty and regime theories. Hons international relations and politics school of social sciences.
In particular, this analysis focuses on state survival, national prestige, and great power status theories, which are the most prominent theories used in explaining nuclear proliferation. Nuclear proliferation refers to the spread of nuclear weapons and the technology used to produce such weapons, and to the process by which a state develops andor comes into possession of nuclear weapons us department of defence 2005. Traditionally, american thinking on proliferationwhether by scholars. Meyer steps back from the emotions and rhetoric surrounding the nuclear arms debates to provide a systematic examination of the underlying determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation. The book provides an excellent empirical analysis of the nuclear choices of new nuclear states, india and pakistan. A dynamic theory of nuclear proliferation and preventive war volume 70 issue 4 muhammet a. Nuclear winter is the term for a theory describing the climatic effects of nuclear war. Attempt is also made to explain reasons of nuclear proliferation through the prism of security needs. The sixth section outlines alternative theories about the potential impact of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt on nuclear weapons programs decisions. Proponents of missile defenses, both inside and outside the bush administration, argue that, absent nmd, the proliferation of nuclear. The strategic logic of nuclear proliferation mit press journals. Nuclear proliferation is the biggest challenge posing direct threat to.
Bush ordered the deployment of a national missile defense nmd. This article introduces a strategic theory of nuclear proliferation that takes into account the security goals of all key actors. The nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt envisioned the end of nuclear weapons, by recognising five nuclear weapon states nws us, russia, china, france, and britain. The world would be a better place to live, had the astonishing scientific discoveries not been. Determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation dongjoon. There is quite a bit of good news about the prospects for reducing the threats from nuclear weapons. The region provides a good laboratory for understanding failed past predictions and for identifying conditions for potential transformations of its nuclear order. Khan proliferation network has sparked inquiry into the roles of clandestine transactions in the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and their delivery systems.
This is partly because realist theory provides a convincing justification for the acquisition of weap. In the absence of a nonproliferation deal, the observ. Traditionally, american thinking on proliferationwhether by scholars or practitionershas been dominated by the realist camp. We apologize for any inconvenience caused while we fix this issue. Intuitively, security is the most important factor driving nu clear acquisition. By volha charnysh, napf intern from nuclear proliferation. Nuclear proliferation dynamics in protracted conflict. Pardee center for the study of the longerrange future. The fuel and byproduct of lightwater nuclear power reactorsenriched uranium and plutonium can also be used to produce nuclear weapons. Postcolonial perspectives on nuclear non proliferation. A brief history of nuclear proliferation by volha charnysh, napf intern introduction in the last hundred years, life expectancy doubled and many deadly illnesses were eradicated. A must read for all interested in nuclear proliferation, protracted conflicts and south asian security.
Therefore the idealist camp, which takes a different. The realism was therefore applied in attempt to explain nuclear proliferation behavior. Nuclear deterrence theory, nuclear proliferation, and national missile defense robert powell on december 17, 2002, president george w. Printable version theories of nuclear proliferation. Postcolonial perspectives on nuclear non proliferation november 2014 conference paper for the isacisss joint annual conference 2014 1416 november 2014 lyndon b. The literature on nuclear proliferation has focused almost exclusively on the question of why states pursue nuclear weapons. Since the creation of the nuclear bomb, many have feared that a nuclear war could lead to the end of life on earth as we currently.
Nuclear proliferation, the spread of nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons technology, or fissile material to countries that do not already possess them. Why do states build nuclear weapons three models in search of a bomb scott d. Game theory and nuclear warfare cuban missile crisis theory of mutually assured destruction mad does this theory explain what happened during the cuban missile crisis mad and abm mad and nuclear proliferation to rogue states and terrorists. Arms control is meant to break the security dilemma. The destructive nature of nuclear weapons presents an existential threat to the very survival of the human species. Nuclear proliferation pdf carnegie council for ethics in. The limitations of extant theories of nuclear proliferation. Nuclear proliferation the role and regulation of corporations joshua masters as the potential for the involvement of corporations in the manufacture of nuclear weapons has increased, particularly through dualuse technology, global regulation has failed to keep pace. Non proliferation measures, beginning with the nuclear non proliferation treaty of 1968, have been developed via numerous international institutions and a complex web of multilateral and bilateral agreements, and together form the. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the non proliferation treaty or npt. An apparent contra diction lies at the center of our understandings. Finally, i lay out a future research agenda to address the weaknesses in our current understanding of the causes of nuclear proliferation.
According to this view, nuclear weapons are very valuable to states, so only strong supplyside control measures can stop the worlds natural tendency toward rampant proliferation. Classical realism and neorealism as theories of nuclear proliferation realist explanations of nuclear proliferation have dominated thinking about nuclear weapons since the 1950s. It aims at mutual security between partners and overall stability be it in a crisis situation, a grand strategy, or stability to put an end to an arms race. Since the beginning of the atomic age, nuclear weapons proliferation has been on of the major security issues facing the international society, and a growing concern for the consequences of a potential spread of nuclear weapons in the aftermath of world war ii led to the negotiation of the nuclear non proliferation treaty npt in 1968. A dynamic theory of nuclear proliferation and preventive war. In other words, states in international anarchy need.
Theories of conflict and the iraq war daniel lieberfeld. Diverse opinions exist about the determinants of proliferation and the policy options to alter proliferation incentives. States motivations to acquire or forgo nuclear weapons. The first camp takes the realist view that states acquire nuclear weapons because their security demands it. Proliferation networks in theory and practice open pdf 5 kb the discovery of the a. From a technical perspective, as nobel laureatehanesalfvennoted. The conclusions have wide implications for international relations theory and foreign policy.
The mathematical model demonstrates that the effects of nuclear proliferation on the probability of nuclear war depend on the number of existing nuclear weapon states, and that proliferation may reduce rather than increase the probability of nuclear war. Coe abstract we develop a formal model of bargaining between two states, where one can invest in a program to develop nuclear weapons and the other imperfectly observes its e orts and progress over time. Nuclear deterrence theory, nuclear proliferation, and. Nuclear weapons are the most powerful and destructive weapons held in the. In an 85 to 12 vote, the senate approved, specifically for india, an exception to existing us nuclear export. The limitations of extant theories of nuclear proliferation to explain the case of the democratic people. Do nuclear weapons still have a role in international. The term is also used to refer to the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorist organizations or other armed groups. It has also often been used as a justification for possessing nuclear weapons. Intuitively, security is the most important factor driving nuclear acquisition. The existence of a correlation in countryyear data is only one of these. There are two opposing theories regarding the question of proliferation and non proliferation of nuclear weapons. We are currently experiencing intermittent display of pdf links on some article pages.
It then distills relevant considerations for exploring future scenarios in east asia. Realist explanations of nuclear proliferation have dominated think ing about nuclear weapons since the. In this thesis, i establish a model that synthesizes and simplifies the securitybased theories of nuclear proliferation. A dynamic theory of nuclear proliferation and preventive war muhammet a. The question of how they pursue them has received little attention. Nuclear proliferation remains one of the most pressing and important issues in international politics and security. Nuclear proliferation us senate approves usindia nuclear deal on 16 november, the united states senate overwhelmingly approved a controversial nuclear cooperation deal between india and the united states. There are an estimated 23,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, 22,000 of them belonging to the united states and russia. In this paper, i critically examine the western assumptions of the immorality of contemporary nuclear proliferation from an international ethical stance that otherwise might be expected to give it unequivocal support the stance of kantian nonideal theory. Theories of nuclear proliferation the state of the field jacques e.
Empirical codings from the universe of nuclear pursuers, combined with a detailed plausibility probe of indias long march to acquiring nuclear weaponsincluding novel detailsestablish the analytical power of the theory. Additionally, the issues related to nonproliferation and reductions to current nuclear weapon stockpiles are discussed. Why do states build nuclear weapons three models in search. If you are unable to see the pdf link please follow the direct links to the pdf available on all issue table of contents pages and latest articles listing pages. Horizontal proliferation, the spread of nuclear weapons to other countries or nonstate actors walton and gray, 2007. Nuclear proliferation no doubt is a difficult task it involves risks and challenges yet it is one of the biggest challenge posing direct threat to international peace, security and strategic stability. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as governments.
Optimists, pessimists, and theories of nuclear proliferation. Arms control is a term for international restrictions upon the development, production, stockpiling, proliferation and usage of small arms, conventional weapons, and weapons of mass destruction. Other than stability, arms control comes with cost reduction and damage limitation. Nuclear proliferation through critical security studies.
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